THE JAPAN TIMES : Mr. Abdullah is battered

Mr. Abdullah is battered

Posted by Raja Petra
Sunday, 16 March 2008,MT

THE JAPAN TIMES

Malaysia's ruling coalition was stunned in elections last weekend. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his National Front (Barisan Nasional) lost the two-thirds majority in Parliament that they have held for nearly four decades.

As the government tries to regroup, Malaysia appears headed toward increasingly pluralist politics as well as rising tensions in its multiethnic society.

The National Front, which has governed Malaysia since it gained independence in 1957, is a coalition of three big parties and 11 small ones that encompass Malaysia's main ethnic groups: Muslim Malays who make up 60 percent of the population, Chinese who comprise 25 percent and Indians who represent 8 percent. Impressive economic development, coupled with a Bumiputra policy that favors ethnic Malays in all realms of Malaysian life, facilitated National Front rule.

Mr. Abdullah, who took over as prime minister in 2003, had solidified the coalition position, winning a landslide election in 2004 shortly after taking office. Yet disaffection with his government has grown. The public is angry at unfulfilled promises from that campaign, a widening income gap and rising costs of living. Mr. Abdullah, whose rule has been less harsh than that of his predecessor, Mr. Mahathir Mohamad, has been criticized for being out of touch and unresponsive in crises; he has even been chastised for remarrying less than two years after his wife died.

The real complaints against the government are economic. Despite the country's solid economic performance, many Malaysians do not feel that their lives have improved; there is a perception of widening corruption and widespread sentiment that the Bumiputra policy only benefits well-connected Malays. Nevertheless, a confident Mr. Abdullah called an early election, and there was even speculation that the National Front would make inroads in Penang, the one state controlled by PAS, the Islamist opposition party.

Instead, the ruling coalition made its worst showing in decades. The National Front won just half the popular vote and lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority for only the second time since independence (the first was in 1969), falling from 90 percent to 62 percent. The opposition alliance's representation jumped from 19 seats in the outgoing 222-member Parliament to 82. Equally worrying for the ruling coalition was the performance in state elections: Rather than picking up Penang, the National Front lost four more state houses. The opposition alliance now holds five of the 13 state governments.

Mr. Abdullah can claim a new mandate but his coalition is badly damaged. Four of his Cabinet ministers lost their seats in the election debacle, including the head of the main Indian party in the coalition. The prime minister has shrugged off calls to resign, and the major coalition partners have rallied behind him.

But the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the largest Malay political party, has been divided over Mr. Abdullah's rule. Even though he was handpicked by Mr. Mahathir to succeed him, the former prime minister has become a bitter opponent of Mr. Abdullah, and has become even more vocal after the election. Mr. Mahathir's son, an executive in the party's youth wing, has called for the prime minister's resignation. Mr. Abdullah faces a real fight when UMNO holds its convention later this year.

Mr. Abdullah, though shocked by his political miscalculation, has shown no inclination to step down. Governing will be more difficult now: Without a two-thirds majority, he cannot change the constitution or make key appointments without approval. The big question for the opposition is whether it will be able to build on its victories. This election marked the first time opposition parties put aside racial politics and campaigned on a platform of equality. If they can govern that way — and be successful in the state houses — then Malaysia may be headed toward genuinely pluralist democracy. A key element of future success will be PAS' ability to allay fears that it is an extremist Muslim party.

Malaysia needs an end to its ethnic politics. The Bumiputra policies made sense at one point in Malaysia's development but they have become anachronistic and only facilitate corruption and inequality. They have alienated Chinese and Indians who suffer discrimination from native Malays. The government's suppression of demonstrations calling for reform last year, and the arrest of protest leaders, fanned their anger. Ordinary Malays are embittered by the favoritism that now permeates the program. It is too early to count Mr. Abdullah out, but he now faces the political battle of his life.